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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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