A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
